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  #1  
Unread 01 Dec 2020, 07:39 PM
SiteWolf SiteWolf is offline
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Default NBA divi formulas

I don't know how much people can help with this, but I'll give it a shot.

I would like to, if possible, come up with new formulas for the NBA. I don't yet know if I can come up with something that's much better, given this won't be my first attempt at it, but.......

i'm curious if any of you can give me any ideas of what YOU see that doesn't seem right. What kinds of stat lines seem like they should be getting bigger divis, what ones seem the divis are too big, is it less about what they are and more about how small they normally are? Whatcha got?
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  #2  
Unread 01 Dec 2020, 11:04 PM
ProneEisenrott ProneEisenrott is offline
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So, I'll confess that I have reverse-engineered the NBA dividend formula to within 0.1% accuracy. I think it is reasonable based on the stats considered, but would recommend a few tweaks.

Eliminate "Turnovers"--I know it's an attempt to penalized a player's mistakes, but nobody really looks at the turnover line in the box score.

Possibly add another stat for double-double and/or triple-double, both of which are tracked and admired across the NBA. It would provide a needed dividend jolt to a high-performer, which could finally put some NBA dividends on par with PGA, NHL, and NFL top divs, putting the NBA more in play for monthly competitions, which right now it pretty much is not. Plus, it would give JS players another fun thing to look for in the daily box scores (like an eagle in PGA or a defensive TD in NFL).

I could give you specific recommendations on tweaking the formula itself, but that would give me an unfair advantage, eh?
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  #3  
Unread 02 Dec 2020, 01:12 PM
rich76 rich76 is offline
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Mixed emotions responding to this.......

I have little to no use for the NBA itself and thusly couldn't care less about it here. I look at the sector as simply a place to put alot of unspent cash into. Searching the box scores for a monthly buy is far too much work for the rare time an NBA stock would ever be one.

I agree with prone that eliminating TO's and adding another stat would be a real good idea but not double/doubles....they are far to common. Triple doubles I think would be a great addition.

Also thinking about prone being able to play as relic and others have.....by firguring out formulas and competing on a completely uneven level.
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  #4  
Unread 02 Dec 2020, 03:11 PM
SiteWolf SiteWolf is offline
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Well, the point of including a sport is not just as a place to put unspent cash. I realize that's what the NBA has been for the bulk of our history, but not what it should be. But people have paid attention to sports here for competition sake that they don't really follow otherwise.

I hadn't been thinking along the line of eliminating turnovers, but if that were the case, would impact the formulas across other stat categories. I wouldn't be adding additional categories, however, unless it DID involve elminating, similar to having made a change back when splitting pitchers into starters and relievers- forever meaning what you see as walks/hits for relievers still appears as shutouts for me in our back office.

Another aspect of including stat categories is that, for them to be quantified, they generally appear in a box score. In the case of basketball, other than splitting offensive and defensive rebounds or shooting percentages, the only additional thing showing in an NBA box would be personal fouls.

Saying that doesn't mean there aren't things to consider including into divi formulas that aren't explicitly showing in a box score. It would be possible, for example, to incorporate a small bump for a player attaining a double double and a larger one for a triple double...in theory, I've not plotted it out yet. In other words, I wouldn't need to specifically list a double category to use it- after all, on most days for most players, triple double would display a 0 with just the occasional 1.

Now, that's not to say it couldn't make more sense for players to all have a projections for things like that, so buyers could visibly see the likelihood of it occuring and determine the value of buying accordingly.

Along that line, IF I continue utilizing my new $10/week stat find for football, I would have a ton of options for categories there, in particular team stocks- whether it's actually listing penalty yards or replacing that with something. I could even potentially create another set of team stocks for special teams. However, some categories would still be difficult to split...i.e. offensive stocks get the benefit from all points scored, defense dinged for all points scored.

But, the current issue is dealing with NBA formulas that have effectively 'neutered' the market. There are simpler steps I could take that could help some, I'm just not sure if that would just be a band-aid approach. Or, I could at least attempt to create formulas that put the market on par with other sports.

I mean, it's not like I see perfection looking through others, but other than the fact NASCAR can never produce a huge divi, other sports, I feel, can co-exist with each other fairly competitively.
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Don't piss off old people- the older we get, the less life in prison is a deterrent.
I'm pretty confident my last words will be 'well crap, that didn't work'.
Of all the things I've lost over the years, I think I miss my metabolism most of all.
Nachos are just tacos that don't have their s_it together.
I'm not adding this year to my age because I really didn't use it.
Ever notice that extra fries and exercise sound a lot alike?
  #5  
Unread 03 Dec 2020, 11:58 AM
Yami Ron Yami Ron is offline
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I'm interested in this topic too so I jotted down some ideas (though you may be using a similar formula).

I'm still making adjustments as necessary to this message in a separate text file.

Adding Personal Fouls (PF), Free Throws Missed (FTM), Double Doubles (DD), Triple Doubles (TD), and Minutes Played (MIN) would help.

Keep Turnovers.

Projected Baselines may have to be lowered to compensate for the new formula and allow for slightly bigger yields to enter for the top players who produce on average.

Defense > Assists > Rebounds > Points

Formula would be divide Weighted Actual Stats by Weighted Projected Average Stats and subtract 1, and times that value by 3. The result is the percentage bonus.

Weighted Actual Stats (WAS): .2 * PTS - .1 * 3PM - .21 * FTM + .55 * REB + .7 * AST + 1.5 * (STL + BLK) - .85 * TO - .51 * PF + 2 * DD + 8 * TD - .02 * MIN

-- The variables above are looking at individual game performance

Weighted Projected Average Stats (WPAS): (.2 * PTS - .1 * 3PM + .55 * REB + .7 * AST + 1.5 * (STL + BLK) - .85 * TO - .51 * PF)/82

-- The variables above are looking at total projected values
-- FTM, DD, TD, and MIN are not part of this computation

Formula (%) = GP * ((WAS/WPAS) - 1) * 3

Notes:

1. The multipliers are based on a league I test run on Fleaflicker tracking player performance to determine overall rankings.
2. 6 PTS from 2-PT range should be worth more than 6 PTS from 3-PT range.
3. GP (Game Played) would be a 1 or 0 if NBA player played or not.
4. MIN (Minutes Played) would help determine how efficient a person was while on the court. Include fractional minutes if possible.
5. The formula is set up this way so that if the NBA player hits their projections, they'll break even outside of FTM and MIN played
6. Formula will normally not go lower than -3% unless there was no offensive production (the 3 multiplier can be higher for a larger range of percentages)

Example Formulas (no Projections for Fouls so will use current stats):

Giannis Antetokounmpo WPAS: 2000 PTS, 116 3PM, 1000 REB, 461 AST, 81 STL, 86 BLK, 250 TO, 195 PF
(0.2 * 2000 - 0.1 * 116 + 0.55 * 1000 + 0.7 * 461 + 1.5 * 167 - 0.85 * 250 - 0.51 * 195)/82 = 1199.65/82 = 14.630

Giannis Antetokounmpo WAS: 29.5 PTS, 1.4 3PM, 3.7 FTM, 13.6 REB, 5.6 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 3.7 TO, 1 DD, 30.4 MIN
0.2 * 29.5 - 0.1 * 1.4 - 0.21 * 3.7 + 0.55 * 13.6 + 0.7 * 5.6 + 1.5 * 2 - 0.85 * 3.7 - 0.51 * 3.1 + 2 * 1 - 0.02 * 30.4 = 16.049

Formula: (16.049/14.630 - 1) * 3 = 0.291% Bonus

James Harden WPAS: 2000 PTS, 200 3PM, 537 REB, 617 AST, 150 STL, 72 BLK, 250 TO, 227 PF
(0.2 * 2000 - 0.1 * 200 + 0.55 * 537 + 0.7 * 617 + 1.5 * 222 - 0.85 * 250 - 0.51 * 227)/82 = 1111.98/82 = 13.561

James Harden WAS: 34.3 PTS, 4.4 3PM, 1.6 FTM, 6.6 REB, 7.5 AST, 1.8 STL, 0.9 BLK, 4.5 TO, 3.3 PF, 36.5 MIN
0.2 * 34.3 - 0.1 * 4.4 - 0.21 * 1.6 + 0.55 * 6.6 + 0.7 * 7.5 + 1.5 * 2.7 - 0.85 * 4.5 - 0.51 * 3.3 - 0.02 * 36.5 = 12.776

Formula: (12.776/13.561 - 1) * 3 = -0.1737% Bonus
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  #6  
Unread 04 Dec 2020, 11:59 AM
jbrune56 jbrune56 is offline
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How about +/- like NHL? I see it in box scores. Not near as specific as the previous post, but anything to cause some buys in NBA would be good. I thought they were changed as the NBA was running wild at the beginning (when I wasn't active and it took a long time to catch up). So something closer to that with better returns than now but not near as much as "back in the day" - how's that for vague?
  #7  
Unread 05 Dec 2020, 09:41 AM
SiteWolf SiteWolf is offline
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Yami, I appreciate the post. I've been looking over various analytics to see what I can derive from them and your post will help with that. I've wanted our formulas here to attempt to emulate a player's statistical impact on a game. My current problem is, whatever changes I make won't be able to add the number of categories involved without significant programming. I can change an existing one (i.e. utilizing penalty yards for something else for NFL team stocks) but not add...............for now. But I'm trying to think of creative ways around that (i.e. adding bumps for certain things like I do in NASCAR that don't require using a category to implement).

jbrune, a recap on what happened with the NBA....and stocks in general...in the beginning. One of my original partners had the task of creating the formulas used initially while I was working on other things. 2 things happened that have had significant ongoing impact here. To your point, the first was...I didn't catch that his first NBA formulas were set so that it was IMPOSSIBLE for an NBA stock to get a negative divi! So yes, the formulas were changed...but they've been very unsatisfying since nonetheless.

The other thing, tho unrelated to the current topic, had to do with stock splits. I had talked to partners about how stock splits should be a rare thing, ideally. My thought was that formulas and split levels would be set that ideally a stock would only split maybe 2 times during a player's career, more would be rare. But one night, and oddly enough if memory serves one of THE last times I believe I've had the flu, the partner that had created the formulas called me excitedly talking about the fact we were going to have our first stock split in the morning. I said 'how is that possible, the game has only been going for a few weeks?!' He had told the programmer to set stock splits at $100/share even though he admitted having notes where I suggested $1,000. So, with no negadivis and $100/share stock splits...yeah, NBA ran wild.

In retrospect, I wonder if my thought a couple years into the game wouldn't have been the better way to go. I was seriously thinking of selling off ALL stocks in ALL portfolios...and resetting all stock prices to $20.

Anyway, all input appreciated.
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Find us on for updates, including site issues. Also now on Reddit, not that I'm sure what we're doing there yet.

Don't piss off old people- the older we get, the less life in prison is a deterrent.
I'm pretty confident my last words will be 'well crap, that didn't work'.
Of all the things I've lost over the years, I think I miss my metabolism most of all.
Nachos are just tacos that don't have their s_it together.
I'm not adding this year to my age because I really didn't use it.
Ever notice that extra fries and exercise sound a lot alike?
  #8  
Unread 06 Dec 2020, 01:54 PM
Yami Ron Yami Ron is offline
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A stock should not split at a certain amount. It should split if the specific person over-exceeds their projections X number of times (e.g., bonus >= 15%, depending on league and formula). Since the share factor currently is 10, then let X=10 (possibly could be a little lower because of different season lengths).
  #9  
Unread 06 Dec 2020, 03:06 PM
SiteWolf SiteWolf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yami Ron View Post
A stock should not split at a certain amount. It should split if the specific person over-exceeds their projections X number of times (e.g., bonus >= 15%, depending on league and formula). Since the share factor currently is 10, then let X=10 (possibly could be a little lower because of different season lengths).
did you get a copy of my notes from back when we started? lol

I was talking about something along that line way back when we were setting this thing up....where certain things would trigger 'lesser' splits (i.e. in your example, at a certain divi percentage, a 2/1 split and/or at a certain gain for the season another 2/1 split....while still having a dollar amount generating a 10/1 split). In the end, it was programming we opted away from
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Find us on for updates, including site issues. Also now on Reddit, not that I'm sure what we're doing there yet.

Don't piss off old people- the older we get, the less life in prison is a deterrent.
I'm pretty confident my last words will be 'well crap, that didn't work'.
Of all the things I've lost over the years, I think I miss my metabolism most of all.
Nachos are just tacos that don't have their s_it together.
I'm not adding this year to my age because I really didn't use it.
Ever notice that extra fries and exercise sound a lot alike?
  #10  
Unread 06 Dec 2020, 03:06 PM
SiteWolf SiteWolf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yami Ron View Post
A stock should not split at a certain amount. It should split if the specific person over-exceeds their projections X number of times (e.g., bonus >= 15%, depending on league and formula). Since the share factor currently is 10, then let X=10 (possibly could be a little lower because of different season lengths).
did you get a copy of my notes from back when we started? lol

I was talking about something along that line way back when we were setting this thing up....where certain things would trigger 'lesser' splits (i.e. in your example, at a certain divi percentage, a 2/1 split and/or at a certain gain for the season another 2/1 split....while still having a dollar amount generating a 10/1 split). In the end, it was programming we opted away from
__________________
Find us on for updates, including site issues. Also now on Reddit, not that I'm sure what we're doing there yet.

Don't piss off old people- the older we get, the less life in prison is a deterrent.
I'm pretty confident my last words will be 'well crap, that didn't work'.
Of all the things I've lost over the years, I think I miss my metabolism most of all.
Nachos are just tacos that don't have their s_it together.
I'm not adding this year to my age because I really didn't use it.
Ever notice that extra fries and exercise sound a lot alike?
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