SC shocker

[hork]

Now there's a shock for you McCain wins the SC GOP primary.

Might not seem to be such a surprise to those of you who don't have the pleasure of living in the South East (and more specifically in the Bible belt region of the south east) but this is huge. Given this state's predilection to put religion ahead of everything else, even to the detriment of its own well being, finishing ahead of the most "evangelical" player in the field bodes extremely well for the AZ senator.

[TroyB911]

[P562045]

Who exactly is the evangelical candidate?

Now I know I must admit to not paying much attention but it seems to me that the democrats have been talking more about their religious beliefs than the other party.

Did some other candidate try to slip in a little flying the confederate flag at the state capitol in South Carolina rhetoric again this time around?

Yes I do have an attention span of years about some things and that is part of the reason why McCain did not win the primary in South Carolina in 2000 and he never really recovered after that in that particular election year.

[hork]

Who exactly is the evangelical candidate?

Huckabee

Did some other candidate try to slip in a little flying the confederate flag at the state capitol in South Carolina rhetoric again this time around?

Huckabee.

It was an issue for a bit as many of the hicks in this state tried to make it so but to his credit McCain simply stated the fact that the people of SC voted on the issue, they voted to remove it from state buildings, it has been removed, the people have spoken, and the case is closed. So while some tried to make it an issue, the majority of folks down here have moved on.

Economy is the issue down here with the closing of 90% of our industry due to recent trade policies. McCain was smart enough to speak to the issue, Huckabee tried to play the coservative evangelical card (usually a staple in this region) and lost.

I must say I'm impressed for the first time in years the residents of this state voted for improving their status rather than succumbing to the relgious rhetoric they so often do.

Of course turnout was low as most folks (at least according to local polling) are more interested in next week's race than they were this weeks.

[P562045]

Originally Posted by hork

Who exactly is the evangelical candidate?

Huckabee

Did some other candidate try to slip in a little flying the confederate flag at the state capitol in South Carolina rhetoric again this time around?

Huckabee.

It was an issue for a bit as many of the hicks in this state tried to make it so but to his credit McCain simply stated the fact that the people of SC voted on the issue, they voted to remove it from state buildings, it has been removed, the people have spoken, and the case is closed. So while some tried to make it an issue, the majority of folks down here have moved on.

Economy is the issue down here with the closing of 90% of our industry due to recent trade policies. McCain was smart enough to speak to the issue, Huckabee tried to play the coservative evangelical card (usually a staple in this region) and lost.

I must say I'm impressed for the first time in years the residents of this state voted for improving their status rather than succumbing to the relgious rhetoric they so often do.

Of course turnout was low as most folks (at least according to local polling) are more interested in next week's race than they were this weeks.

Thank you.

[-mmm-]

Your take on Huckabee's campaign is surprising and interesting to me hork. No wonder he lost. Most everywhere he campaigned on in Iowa, there was some rhetoric in his speeches about economic populism. The fact he's abandoned it in places where it could have really helped him (SC, Michigan) in favor of more Bible thumping is meaning that its looking like he'll be just a footnote in Presidential campaign history.

[-mmm-]

And to give some numbers to backup what hork said about lower turnout in SC.

In 2000, McCain lost to Bush there, receiving 237,000 votes (Bush had 301k)
Yesterday he won, garnering just over 130,000 votes

[hork]

and just because i hate blat-azzes and liars, no matter what ole huckster is saying today, there was next to no snow in the upstate area of SC (where I live) until after 6pm and then not a bit of it stuck. there was no ice and the roads were completely bare.

i add this only because I heard both huckster and his campaign manager both attribute their poor showing to the weather and Fred Thompson, rather than admitting that for once, those who voted in the GOP primary in SC voted with their minds rather than their fears.

on a lighter note, none of the candidates played up the "it's a new world after 9-11" or "one man and one woman" that flooded this state four years ago and for that I'll tip my hat to them all.

[TroyB911]

Hork do u think McCain willbe the nominee? What is Rudy's deal. Does he really think he can sit out then throw up a couple 3-pointers or hail marys?

[hork]

I think Guiliani is banking on the air time he got after the attacks in 2001. Problem for him is, it's not sufficient enough to convince the right wing of his party as they're often more concerned with moral issues over anything else and Guiliani doesn't quite fit their ideal of morality.

I'm not convinced McCain can win the nomination just yet. He has a legit shot and all the momentum. But in all honesty with the GOP race as it currently stands, momentum doesn't really seem to be an issue.

The GOP nomination rides on February 5th. By the time the final results from "super tuesday" are released, you'll know who both party's candidates are.

If I had to guess right now I'd say we'll be looking at a Clinton vs. McCain ballot in November but it's too early to tell. I'm still not convinced that McCain can win and to be honest I'm kind of hoping he doesn't as he's the only real threat the opposition has to capturing the executive.

I still don't think any of the other contenders (read as Romney or Huckabee and if you must Rudy) have a real shot at winning a national election

[P562045]

The top two democrat presidential candidates acted rather childish during the debates in South Carolina on Monday.

Obama said he went out in his community to try to help people and where was Mrs. Clinton during this period of time?

She was a corporate lawyer and the director of Wal Mart.

Then Mrs. Clinton just had to get a little dig in latter on that one of Obama's biggest contributors to his senate campaign was the worst slum lord in the history of Chicago.

Well so much for both of them being ready from second one of day one that is just less than a year away. This does show that both of them can get past the pettiness that is the politics in Washington.

Both of them love to run around and say they are going to change Washington just by their sheer will. Well they better hope there are 60 democrat senators or there will be more of the same from congress and no one will be able to change that no matter how hard they try or want to really change Washington. Truly changing Washington and not a bunch of window dressing requires a cloture proof senate and back in 2006 when the democrats had all kinds of momentum going into the elections the democrats did not even come close to making the senate cloture proof.

And I have mentioned before there are some really difficult challenges that the next president and congress are going to face and that is going to happen no matter who the next president is and what the makeup of the congress is early next year.

[hork]

and there ya go troy with thompson dropping out of the race, mccain's chances just dropped considerably.

McCain's best chance was for Thompson to stick around until mid-February which would have split the extreme-right evangelical vote between both he and Huckabee. Now with him gone, the religious fringe of the conservative party will gravitate toward Huckabee and drive McCain out of the race.

This of course is not a bad thing, as I said before when it comes to the national level, Huckabee won't have a prayer given his record on women's rights and status in society, and his overtly discriminatory past. Hell even Hillary can win that contest running away.

[StockTrader]

Just to get a time and date on this .. McCain will get the nomination. The reason?

Originally Posted by hork

This of course is not a bad thing, as I said before when it comes to the national level, Huckabee won't have a prayer given his record on women's rights and status in society, and his overtly discriminatory past. Hell even Hillary can win that contest running away.

Contrary to what you believe Ken, a huge part of the Republican party is not "far right." That having been said, Huckabee may give McCain a run for him money ... literally.

Nick

[-mmm-]

Originally Posted by StockTrader

Contrary to what you believe Ken, a huge part of the Republican party is not "far right." That having been said, Huckabee may give McCain a run for him money ... literally.

Nick

Right now polls have McCain ahead in the big super Tuesday states (NY, NJ, Cali). Not sure how those states apportion delegates though.

In fact I had it broken down elsewhere. If today was Super Tuesday and based on polling Ive seen:
McCain would have CT, NY, NJ, AZ, CA, MN
Huckabee would get Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and perhaps Illinois
Romney would win Massachusetts and Utah

Missouri is the biggest state that seems tossup (though may include Illinois in that), and a bunch of smaller states (Alaska, North Dakota, Delaware, Montana and a couple others Im sure Im forgetting) that Ive seen nothing on to give an indication as to where they lean.

Of course this also doesnt factor in any "roll" a candidate can get coming out of Florida.